1 00:00:07,909 --> 00:00:06,230 good afternoon 2 00:00:09,910 --> 00:00:07,919 i'm sarah dewitt from the office of 3 00:00:12,310 --> 00:00:09,920 public affairs at nasa's goddard space 4 00:00:14,230 --> 00:00:12,320 flight center in greenbelt maryland 5 00:00:16,630 --> 00:00:14,240 i'm pleased to introduce the second of 6 00:00:18,550 --> 00:00:16,640 today's three briefings which will focus 7 00:00:19,750 --> 00:00:18,560 on the science of glory 8 00:00:21,029 --> 00:00:19,760 a mission that will improve our 9 00:00:23,109 --> 00:00:21,039 understanding 10 00:00:25,509 --> 00:00:23,119 of aerosols and solar irradiance and 11 00:00:27,189 --> 00:00:25,519 their effect on earth's climate 12 00:00:29,029 --> 00:00:27,199 on the panel with me today are four 13 00:00:32,870 --> 00:00:29,039 principal members of the glory science 14 00:00:34,630 --> 00:00:32,880 team our first speaker will be hal marin 15 00:00:37,430 --> 00:00:34,640 glory program scientist from nasa 16 00:00:39,750 --> 00:00:37,440 headquarters in washington 17 00:00:41,750 --> 00:00:39,760 our second speaker is michael meschenko 18 00:00:45,029 --> 00:00:41,760 glory project scientist from nasa's 19 00:00:46,549 --> 00:00:45,039 goddard institute for space studies 20 00:00:48,869 --> 00:00:46,559 our third speaker 21 00:00:51,029 --> 00:00:48,879 is greg kopp the total irradiance 22 00:00:52,630 --> 00:00:51,039 monitor instrument scientist 23 00:00:54,229 --> 00:00:52,640 from the laboratory for atmospheric and 24 00:00:56,709 --> 00:00:54,239 space physics at the university of 25 00:00:59,750 --> 00:00:56,719 colorado in boulder 26 00:01:02,069 --> 00:00:59,760 and our final speaker is brian cairns 27 00:01:04,310 --> 00:01:02,079 aerosol polarimetry sensor instrument 28 00:01:05,990 --> 00:01:04,320 scientist from nasa's goddard institute 29 00:01:08,469 --> 00:01:06,000 for space studies 30 00:01:10,550 --> 00:01:08,479 we'll go ahead and start with pal mary 31 00:01:12,390 --> 00:01:10,560 thanks sarah 32 00:01:15,190 --> 00:01:12,400 we're really really happy to be here 33 00:01:17,910 --> 00:01:15,200 today it's been a long road with a few 34 00:01:21,350 --> 00:01:17,920 potholes but now we're very much looking 35 00:01:23,350 --> 00:01:21,360 forward to successfully launching glory 36 00:01:25,350 --> 00:01:23,360 now we know the earth's climate is 37 00:01:27,749 --> 00:01:25,360 changing and we know that the majority 38 00:01:29,109 --> 00:01:27,759 of that change is caused by human 39 00:01:31,270 --> 00:01:29,119 activities 40 00:01:33,910 --> 00:01:31,280 the grand challenge that climate 41 00:01:35,590 --> 00:01:33,920 scientists now face is to predict when 42 00:01:38,310 --> 00:01:35,600 and how much 43 00:01:40,950 --> 00:01:38,320 climate will change with enough fidelity 44 00:01:43,830 --> 00:01:40,960 to provide policy makers with reliable 45 00:01:46,710 --> 00:01:43,840 information that they need to formulate 46 00:01:47,670 --> 00:01:46,720 policies that avoid catastrophic climate 47 00:01:50,469 --> 00:01:47,680 change 48 00:01:51,990 --> 00:01:50,479 without unnecessarily damaging people's 49 00:01:54,389 --> 00:01:52,000 lives 50 00:01:56,389 --> 00:01:54,399 climate models are the tools needed to 51 00:01:58,230 --> 00:01:56,399 forecast climate 52 00:01:59,910 --> 00:01:58,240 the value of the measurements to be made 53 00:02:02,550 --> 00:01:59,920 by the glory mission 54 00:02:05,510 --> 00:02:02,560 are the improvements in climb in climate 55 00:02:06,389 --> 00:02:05,520 models that that data will enable 56 00:02:08,710 --> 00:02:06,399 now 57 00:02:10,710 --> 00:02:08,720 the sun provides the power to the engine 58 00:02:12,150 --> 00:02:10,720 that is our climate 59 00:02:15,190 --> 00:02:12,160 glory will make two kinds of 60 00:02:18,390 --> 00:02:15,200 measurements using two sensors focused 61 00:02:20,229 --> 00:02:18,400 on different aspects of the sun's energy 62 00:02:22,470 --> 00:02:20,239 to help us better understand earth's 63 00:02:24,550 --> 00:02:22,480 climate the first sensor the total 64 00:02:26,550 --> 00:02:24,560 irradiance monitor will measure the 65 00:02:29,190 --> 00:02:26,560 total amount of energy coming from the 66 00:02:31,589 --> 00:02:29,200 sun to the earth 67 00:02:33,350 --> 00:02:31,599 the tim will measure watts per square 68 00:02:35,350 --> 00:02:33,360 meter of solar energy coming to the 69 00:02:39,190 --> 00:02:35,360 earth with significantly improved 70 00:02:42,229 --> 00:02:39,200 accuracy precision and stability 71 00:02:44,949 --> 00:02:42,239 the glory tim will continue and improve 72 00:02:47,270 --> 00:02:44,959 our current 32-year record of total 73 00:02:49,350 --> 00:02:47,280 solar irradiance 74 00:02:52,470 --> 00:02:49,360 the second instrument the aerosol 75 00:02:54,390 --> 00:02:52,480 polarimeters polarimetry sensor or aps 76 00:02:56,710 --> 00:02:54,400 will measure properties of sunlight 77 00:02:59,110 --> 00:02:56,720 reflected from tiny particles called 78 00:03:00,869 --> 00:02:59,120 aerosols suspended in the earth's 79 00:03:03,270 --> 00:03:00,879 atmosphere 80 00:03:05,910 --> 00:03:03,280 the properties of this reflected light 81 00:03:09,670 --> 00:03:05,920 are related to the characteristics the 82 00:03:11,910 --> 00:03:09,680 properties of those atmospheric aerosols 83 00:03:15,670 --> 00:03:11,920 both natural processes and human 84 00:03:17,670 --> 00:03:15,680 activities produce these aerosols 85 00:03:19,830 --> 00:03:17,680 and these aerosols affect the earth's 86 00:03:22,790 --> 00:03:19,840 energy budget climate in a number of 87 00:03:24,710 --> 00:03:22,800 ways for example aerosols can scatter 88 00:03:26,789 --> 00:03:24,720 and absorb light 89 00:03:28,229 --> 00:03:26,799 higher concentrations of reflective 90 00:03:30,949 --> 00:03:28,239 aerosols 91 00:03:32,869 --> 00:03:30,959 cause more scattering and can cool the 92 00:03:35,030 --> 00:03:32,879 whole earth system 93 00:03:38,470 --> 00:03:35,040 higher concentrations of aerosols with 94 00:03:39,670 --> 00:03:38,480 color like suit or black carbon 95 00:03:41,990 --> 00:03:39,680 can cause 96 00:03:45,270 --> 00:03:42,000 atmospheric heating and 97 00:03:47,589 --> 00:03:45,280 cooling of the surface below 98 00:03:49,509 --> 00:03:47,599 aerosols also affect the radiative 99 00:03:51,750 --> 00:03:49,519 properties the reflective properties of 100 00:03:53,509 --> 00:03:51,760 clouds 101 00:03:56,149 --> 00:03:53,519 the effect of aerosols on climate is 102 00:03:58,470 --> 00:03:56,159 very complex 103 00:04:02,949 --> 00:03:58,480 and it is the greatest uncertainty in 104 00:04:08,789 --> 00:04:05,910 glory aps is aimed directly at this very 105 00:04:10,710 --> 00:04:08,799 important problem 106 00:04:13,670 --> 00:04:10,720 the earth's climate system is complex 107 00:04:17,430 --> 00:04:13,680 and integrates land ocean atmosphere and 108 00:04:20,030 --> 00:04:17,440 biological processes on a global basis 109 00:04:22,710 --> 00:04:20,040 in order to put glory measurements in a 110 00:04:24,870 --> 00:04:22,720 multi-disciplinary global context glory 111 00:04:28,310 --> 00:04:24,880 will orbit the earth 112 00:04:30,230 --> 00:04:28,320 in the so-called afternoon or a train 113 00:04:32,070 --> 00:04:30,240 with glory the a train will be a 114 00:04:33,670 --> 00:04:32,080 constellation of earth-observing 115 00:04:37,350 --> 00:04:33,680 satellites 116 00:04:40,629 --> 00:04:37,360 orbiting in close formation to provide 117 00:04:44,550 --> 00:04:40,639 coincident comprehensive and coordinated 118 00:04:45,430 --> 00:04:44,560 observations of the earth system 119 00:04:46,710 --> 00:04:45,440 sarah 120 00:04:48,550 --> 00:04:46,720 thanks al 121 00:04:50,390 --> 00:04:48,560 our next speaker is michael meschenko 122 00:04:53,030 --> 00:04:50,400 the glory project scientist from the 123 00:04:54,469 --> 00:04:53,040 nasa goddard institute for space studies 124 00:04:56,390 --> 00:04:54,479 thank you sarah 125 00:04:58,230 --> 00:04:56,400 first of all i would like to to join hal 126 00:04:59,749 --> 00:04:58,240 and say that it's it's really exciting 127 00:05:03,590 --> 00:04:59,759 to be at this 128 00:05:06,230 --> 00:05:03,600 time here when a new scientific phase in 129 00:05:09,430 --> 00:05:06,240 the glory mission is about to begin 130 00:05:12,629 --> 00:05:09,440 my graphic shows the overall scientific 131 00:05:15,430 --> 00:05:12,639 objective of the glory mission 132 00:05:20,230 --> 00:05:17,909 the earth's climate system is fueled by 133 00:05:22,150 --> 00:05:20,240 the incoming solar energy 134 00:05:24,390 --> 00:05:22,160 part of this energy is reflected back 135 00:05:27,350 --> 00:05:24,400 into space and earth 136 00:05:29,590 --> 00:05:27,360 also emits some heat energy 137 00:05:31,749 --> 00:05:29,600 if the incoming solar energy is 138 00:05:33,749 --> 00:05:31,759 perfectly balanced by the outgoing 139 00:05:36,629 --> 00:05:33,759 energy then the climate system is 140 00:05:38,550 --> 00:05:36,639 expected to be stable and not change but 141 00:05:40,310 --> 00:05:38,560 if there is a disbalance for example if 142 00:05:43,350 --> 00:05:40,320 the amount of the incoming energy 143 00:05:45,189 --> 00:05:43,360 exceeds the amount of energy going out 144 00:05:46,870 --> 00:05:45,199 then the earth's climate system is 145 00:05:48,390 --> 00:05:46,880 expected to change 146 00:05:51,830 --> 00:05:48,400 as we have been observing for the past 147 00:05:53,350 --> 00:05:51,840 50 years it is warming 148 00:05:55,990 --> 00:05:53,360 this tells you that it is extremely 149 00:05:58,309 --> 00:05:56,000 important to know how much solar energy 150 00:06:00,550 --> 00:05:58,319 is entering the earth's climate system 151 00:06:02,550 --> 00:06:00,560 and the objective of the total solar 152 00:06:05,430 --> 00:06:02,560 irradiance monitor 153 00:06:07,270 --> 00:06:05,440 on the glory mission is to measure this 154 00:06:09,830 --> 00:06:07,280 incoming solar energy with extremely 155 00:06:13,990 --> 00:06:09,840 high accuracy and stability 156 00:06:16,309 --> 00:06:14,000 and in fact to continue the uh 32-year 157 00:06:18,230 --> 00:06:16,319 uninterrupted record of solar energy 158 00:06:20,629 --> 00:06:18,240 measurements from space 159 00:06:24,469 --> 00:06:20,639 once the solar energy enters the 160 00:06:26,710 --> 00:06:24,479 earth's system it it gets reprocessed in 161 00:06:29,350 --> 00:06:26,720 in several ways it can be reflected back 162 00:06:31,510 --> 00:06:29,360 into space or it can be absorbed in the 163 00:06:33,350 --> 00:06:31,520 atmosphere and at the surface 164 00:06:35,430 --> 00:06:33,360 and a very important role in this 165 00:06:37,830 --> 00:06:35,440 redistribution of the solar energies 166 00:06:39,430 --> 00:06:37,840 played by tiny particles 167 00:06:41,189 --> 00:06:39,440 which are airborne they're called 168 00:06:42,629 --> 00:06:41,199 aerosols 169 00:06:44,550 --> 00:06:42,639 most of them are so small that it would 170 00:06:46,230 --> 00:06:44,560 be invisible to a naked eye and yet 171 00:06:48,309 --> 00:06:46,240 there are so many of them that their 172 00:06:49,990 --> 00:06:48,319 effect on climate is estimated to be 173 00:06:51,589 --> 00:06:50,000 quite significant 174 00:06:54,309 --> 00:06:51,599 the problem with these particles is that 175 00:06:56,870 --> 00:06:54,319 they can be natural as well as man-made 176 00:06:58,710 --> 00:06:56,880 so we need a global understanding of the 177 00:07:00,950 --> 00:06:58,720 distribution of these particles and of 178 00:07:04,070 --> 00:07:00,960 their composition this can be done only 179 00:07:06,950 --> 00:07:04,080 from space my next graphic is an 180 00:07:09,350 --> 00:07:06,960 animation which was created using a 181 00:07:11,029 --> 00:07:09,360 theoretical computer model of aerosol 182 00:07:16,150 --> 00:07:11,039 transport 183 00:07:17,909 --> 00:07:16,160 suit particles so we have these 184 00:07:19,909 --> 00:07:17,919 theoretical tools 185 00:07:22,309 --> 00:07:19,919 how to evaluate the transport of 186 00:07:24,390 --> 00:07:22,319 aerosols and yet we know that these 187 00:07:26,390 --> 00:07:24,400 theoretical tools are still not accurate 188 00:07:27,990 --> 00:07:26,400 enough the accuracy must be improved 189 00:07:29,749 --> 00:07:28,000 quite a bit for us to better understand 190 00:07:30,870 --> 00:07:29,759 the climate and predict the future 191 00:07:32,710 --> 00:07:30,880 climate 192 00:07:34,870 --> 00:07:32,720 again this can be done only from space 193 00:07:37,270 --> 00:07:34,880 but it's not easy because the aerosol 194 00:07:38,629 --> 00:07:37,280 particles come in all shapes sizes and 195 00:07:40,469 --> 00:07:38,639 compositions 196 00:07:41,830 --> 00:07:40,479 and different types of particles can 197 00:07:44,070 --> 00:07:41,840 co-exist 198 00:07:46,390 --> 00:07:44,080 so this really calls for a very special 199 00:07:48,309 --> 00:07:46,400 satellite instrument capable of 200 00:07:51,029 --> 00:07:48,319 addressing the aerosol problem with the 201 00:07:53,589 --> 00:07:51,039 requisite accuracy and specificity 202 00:07:55,749 --> 00:07:53,599 and in fact the glory aps the aerosol 203 00:07:57,270 --> 00:07:55,759 polarimetry sensor is the first 204 00:07:59,749 --> 00:07:57,280 instrument of its kind 205 00:08:02,710 --> 00:07:59,759 it will measure not just the reflected 206 00:08:04,950 --> 00:08:02,720 intensity or brightness of sunlight but 207 00:08:06,230 --> 00:08:04,960 it will also measure its state of 208 00:08:09,830 --> 00:08:06,240 polarization 209 00:08:12,309 --> 00:08:09,840 it will accumulate 250 views of the same 210 00:08:14,790 --> 00:08:12,319 piece of real estate from space and it 211 00:08:17,589 --> 00:08:14,800 will do that in nine special channels so 212 00:08:20,390 --> 00:08:17,599 it will provide a wealth of information 213 00:08:21,670 --> 00:08:20,400 measurement data about each scene it's 214 00:08:23,350 --> 00:08:21,680 going to look at 215 00:08:25,430 --> 00:08:23,360 and we expect that this wealth of 216 00:08:27,589 --> 00:08:25,440 information will allow us to 217 00:08:30,710 --> 00:08:27,599 determine the properties of aerosols and 218 00:08:33,430 --> 00:08:30,720 the underlying surface as well as clouds 219 00:08:36,630 --> 00:08:33,440 with the requisite accuracy 220 00:08:38,870 --> 00:08:36,640 my next graphic shows you that the 221 00:08:40,870 --> 00:08:38,880 glory spacecraft will become part of the 222 00:08:43,430 --> 00:08:40,880 so-called afternoon constellation of 223 00:08:45,030 --> 00:08:43,440 satellites it will be the sixth car in 224 00:08:47,750 --> 00:08:45,040 this a train 225 00:08:49,670 --> 00:08:47,760 and for the team instruments it doesn't 226 00:08:52,310 --> 00:08:49,680 matter how we fly the spacecraft because 227 00:08:53,269 --> 00:08:52,320 all it does is to look at the sun at all 228 00:08:55,990 --> 00:08:53,279 times 229 00:08:58,310 --> 00:08:56,000 but for the glory aps it is quite 230 00:09:00,150 --> 00:08:58,320 advantageous to be part of the a train 231 00:09:02,150 --> 00:09:00,160 because different satellites in this a 232 00:09:03,670 --> 00:09:02,160 train carry numerous instruments looking 233 00:09:05,590 --> 00:09:03,680 at the same scenes 234 00:09:07,269 --> 00:09:05,600 underneath at about the same time and 235 00:09:08,470 --> 00:09:07,279 they provide a detailed view of the 236 00:09:10,550 --> 00:09:08,480 climate system 237 00:09:12,949 --> 00:09:10,560 the addition of the aps 238 00:09:14,949 --> 00:09:12,959 is expected to provide even a more 239 00:09:16,710 --> 00:09:14,959 comprehensive view of the system by 240 00:09:18,550 --> 00:09:16,720 combining measurements from aps and 241 00:09:22,070 --> 00:09:18,560 other instruments 242 00:09:24,470 --> 00:09:22,080 we will be able to say much more than we 243 00:09:26,310 --> 00:09:24,480 would otherwise using these instruments 244 00:09:29,030 --> 00:09:26,320 separately i'll give you just one 245 00:09:30,870 --> 00:09:29,040 example aps will be flying right behind 246 00:09:32,710 --> 00:09:30,880 the calypso lidar 247 00:09:35,590 --> 00:09:32,720 and the lidar is a very capable 248 00:09:36,550 --> 00:09:35,600 instrument using a very powerful 249 00:09:38,630 --> 00:09:36,560 laser 250 00:09:40,790 --> 00:09:38,640 it can determine the vertical profile of 251 00:09:42,630 --> 00:09:40,800 the aerosol uh composition in the 252 00:09:44,389 --> 00:09:42,640 atmosphere with very high accuracy on 253 00:09:46,230 --> 00:09:44,399 the other hand it doesn't have this 254 00:09:49,030 --> 00:09:46,240 exquisite sensitivity to the 255 00:09:51,350 --> 00:09:49,040 microphysical properties of particles as 256 00:09:53,750 --> 00:09:51,360 aps does and by combining the 257 00:09:54,790 --> 00:09:53,760 measurements from eps and from calypso 258 00:09:56,070 --> 00:09:54,800 lidar 259 00:09:57,430 --> 00:09:56,080 we will 260 00:09:58,949 --> 00:09:57,440 determine for the first time the 261 00:10:00,949 --> 00:09:58,959 vertical distribution of the 262 00:10:03,269 --> 00:10:00,959 microphysical properties of aerosols and 263 00:10:05,750 --> 00:10:03,279 this is extremely important to improve 264 00:10:08,389 --> 00:10:05,760 our understanding of the climate system 265 00:10:11,190 --> 00:10:08,399 back to you sarah thank you 266 00:10:13,269 --> 00:10:11,200 our next speaker today is greg kopp he's 267 00:10:15,030 --> 00:10:13,279 the total irradiance monitor instrument 268 00:10:16,870 --> 00:10:15,040 scientist from the university of 269 00:10:19,190 --> 00:10:16,880 colorado at boulder's laboratory for 270 00:10:21,190 --> 00:10:19,200 atmospheric and space physics 271 00:10:23,590 --> 00:10:21,200 thank you sarah 272 00:10:26,069 --> 00:10:23,600 so the total irradiance monitor on glory 273 00:10:28,470 --> 00:10:26,079 is looking at the sun and the reason is 274 00:10:30,470 --> 00:10:28,480 that the sun's providing all the energy 275 00:10:32,389 --> 00:10:30,480 input essentially that's driving the 276 00:10:34,150 --> 00:10:32,399 earth's climate system 277 00:10:35,829 --> 00:10:34,160 we'll look at the sun in a minute if you 278 00:10:37,829 --> 00:10:35,839 could please start rolling the first 279 00:10:38,710 --> 00:10:37,839 animation but let's not go to it just 280 00:10:39,750 --> 00:10:38,720 yet 281 00:10:41,509 --> 00:10:39,760 um 282 00:10:42,630 --> 00:10:41,519 the sun's providing all the energy input 283 00:10:45,430 --> 00:10:42,640 to the earth's climate system it's 284 00:10:46,550 --> 00:10:45,440 providing 10 000 times as much energy as 285 00:10:48,630 --> 00:10:46,560 the next 286 00:10:50,550 --> 00:10:48,640 input energy source four thousand times 287 00:10:52,790 --> 00:10:50,560 the amount of energy of all the other 288 00:10:54,949 --> 00:10:52,800 input sources together 289 00:10:57,430 --> 00:10:54,959 now this animation shows in the blue 290 00:10:59,110 --> 00:10:57,440 line here which incidentally is taken 291 00:11:00,710 --> 00:10:59,120 with the predecessor to the total 292 00:11:02,550 --> 00:11:00,720 irradiance monitor that's going to be 293 00:11:04,870 --> 00:11:02,560 flying in glory this one's flying on 294 00:11:07,509 --> 00:11:04,880 nasa's source spacecraft blue line is 295 00:11:09,269 --> 00:11:07,519 showing variations in tsi or total solar 296 00:11:10,630 --> 00:11:09,279 irradiance the total amount of energy 297 00:11:12,150 --> 00:11:10,640 coming from the sun that's heating the 298 00:11:13,590 --> 00:11:12,160 earth's climate system and you can see 299 00:11:15,990 --> 00:11:13,600 that it varies 300 00:11:18,389 --> 00:11:16,000 here with the passage of a large sunspot 301 00:11:21,110 --> 00:11:18,399 region and the formation of another one 302 00:11:22,790 --> 00:11:21,120 as solar activity changes the total 303 00:11:24,470 --> 00:11:22,800 solar irradiance the amount of energy 304 00:11:25,509 --> 00:11:24,480 we're getting from the sun varies with 305 00:11:27,430 --> 00:11:25,519 time 306 00:11:29,829 --> 00:11:27,440 now these are fluctuations that are on 307 00:11:32,069 --> 00:11:29,839 the order of 0.1 to 0.3 percent and 308 00:11:34,470 --> 00:11:32,079 they're occurring over days to weeks 309 00:11:36,470 --> 00:11:34,480 this entire animation here lasts about 310 00:11:37,990 --> 00:11:36,480 three months 311 00:11:39,990 --> 00:11:38,000 the earth's climate system doesn't 312 00:11:42,550 --> 00:11:40,000 really respond that quickly to these 313 00:11:43,509 --> 00:11:42,560 fluctuations what we're more interested 314 00:11:45,910 --> 00:11:43,519 in 315 00:11:47,829 --> 00:11:45,920 is long term how does the sun vary 316 00:11:49,750 --> 00:11:47,839 knowing that it changes this much on 317 00:11:51,750 --> 00:11:49,760 short time scales we'd like to know over 318 00:11:53,509 --> 00:11:51,760 decades over centuries 319 00:11:55,350 --> 00:11:53,519 how does the sun vary because those are 320 00:11:56,949 --> 00:11:55,360 time scales that can be influencing 321 00:11:58,629 --> 00:11:56,959 climate 322 00:12:01,269 --> 00:11:58,639 that also means that you're going to 323 00:12:03,190 --> 00:12:01,279 need a long-term record of what the sun 324 00:12:04,310 --> 00:12:03,200 is doing it's got to be extremely 325 00:12:06,069 --> 00:12:04,320 accurate 326 00:12:08,310 --> 00:12:06,079 being able to measure climate drives 327 00:12:11,110 --> 00:12:08,320 real stringent requirements on accuracy 328 00:12:14,470 --> 00:12:11,120 and stability of these measurements 329 00:12:16,389 --> 00:12:14,480 now nasa noaa and the european space 330 00:12:17,430 --> 00:12:16,399 agency if we could go to the next 331 00:12:19,990 --> 00:12:17,440 graphic 332 00:12:22,470 --> 00:12:20,000 have acquired a 32-year record that 333 00:12:24,069 --> 00:12:22,480 scientists now have taken by several 334 00:12:25,670 --> 00:12:24,079 different instruments the dozen or so 335 00:12:28,310 --> 00:12:25,680 instruments that contribute to this 336 00:12:30,550 --> 00:12:28,320 total solar irradiance record shown here 337 00:12:32,470 --> 00:12:30,560 are shown in different colors 338 00:12:33,990 --> 00:12:32,480 you'll immediately see that each of the 339 00:12:35,910 --> 00:12:34,000 instruments is following the same 340 00:12:37,509 --> 00:12:35,920 behavior in the sun kind of a gradual 341 00:12:38,870 --> 00:12:37,519 11-year cycle where the sun will get a 342 00:12:40,389 --> 00:12:38,880 little brighter and a little dimmer it 343 00:12:41,910 --> 00:12:40,399 also has these very short-term 344 00:12:43,750 --> 00:12:41,920 fluctuations 345 00:12:45,110 --> 00:12:43,760 that i showed you each of these 346 00:12:46,870 --> 00:12:45,120 instruments measures those same 347 00:12:48,550 --> 00:12:46,880 variations very well but you'll see that 348 00:12:49,509 --> 00:12:48,560 there are offsets between each of these 349 00:12:51,670 --> 00:12:49,519 instruments and those are due to 350 00:12:53,509 --> 00:12:51,680 calibration differences something that 351 00:12:55,590 --> 00:12:53,519 we're aiming to be improving with glory 352 00:12:57,350 --> 00:12:55,600 by having an improved accurate 353 00:12:59,910 --> 00:12:57,360 instrument 354 00:13:01,590 --> 00:12:59,920 but it's been because of overlap of each 355 00:13:04,069 --> 00:13:01,600 of these instruments in each of these 356 00:13:06,389 --> 00:13:04,079 measurements where following instruments 357 00:13:08,389 --> 00:13:06,399 will overlap with their predecessors 358 00:13:11,110 --> 00:13:08,399 that you can offset each of the 359 00:13:13,509 --> 00:13:11,120 measurements shown in this plot as we'll 360 00:13:16,389 --> 00:13:13,519 see in the next graphic 361 00:13:18,629 --> 00:13:16,399 to form one continuous record of what 362 00:13:20,949 --> 00:13:18,639 the sun is doing over time 363 00:13:22,470 --> 00:13:20,959 and it's from this continuous record how 364 00:13:24,389 --> 00:13:22,480 the sun is varying and how that 365 00:13:26,790 --> 00:13:24,399 correlates to temperature changes on the 366 00:13:29,670 --> 00:13:26,800 earth that we can infer the climate 367 00:13:31,509 --> 00:13:29,680 sensitivity of the earth to solar 368 00:13:34,150 --> 00:13:31,519 influences 369 00:13:36,150 --> 00:13:34,160 so glory is now going to be continuing 370 00:13:38,550 --> 00:13:36,160 this record it's very important that we 371 00:13:40,230 --> 00:13:38,560 have this overlap with preceding 372 00:13:42,629 --> 00:13:40,240 instruments and preceding measurements 373 00:13:45,030 --> 00:13:42,639 glory is going to be continuing this 374 00:13:46,870 --> 00:13:45,040 record into the near future for us 375 00:13:50,629 --> 00:13:46,880 following on to the total irradiance 376 00:13:53,509 --> 00:13:50,639 monitor currently operating on source 377 00:13:54,629 --> 00:13:53,519 so we'll be extending this record with 378 00:13:56,790 --> 00:13:54,639 time 379 00:13:58,790 --> 00:13:56,800 we'll be improving the accuracy of this 380 00:14:01,269 --> 00:13:58,800 record and that will that will take care 381 00:14:03,829 --> 00:14:01,279 of some of the offsets that i showed you 382 00:14:05,670 --> 00:14:03,839 in one of the previous plots improve the 383 00:14:07,269 --> 00:14:05,680 record by not having those offsets that 384 00:14:09,189 --> 00:14:07,279 that mitigates a little bit against a 385 00:14:10,870 --> 00:14:09,199 potential future data gap if we were to 386 00:14:12,389 --> 00:14:10,880 have a gap in data and come back with a 387 00:14:13,910 --> 00:14:12,399 following instrument 388 00:14:15,350 --> 00:14:13,920 and it reads a little bit higher or a 389 00:14:17,110 --> 00:14:15,360 little bit lower than what we'd seen 390 00:14:19,269 --> 00:14:17,120 before is that due to the sun changing 391 00:14:21,350 --> 00:14:19,279 or due to an instrument change by having 392 00:14:23,030 --> 00:14:21,360 improved accuracy glory is going to be 393 00:14:25,030 --> 00:14:23,040 improving on that record making it a 394 00:14:27,269 --> 00:14:25,040 little more robust against 395 00:14:29,509 --> 00:14:27,279 against gaps in the data 396 00:14:31,750 --> 00:14:29,519 so there are basically four things wise 397 00:14:33,990 --> 00:14:31,760 that we're looking to get from glory 398 00:14:35,910 --> 00:14:34,000 we're looking to know what the true 399 00:14:37,590 --> 00:14:35,920 total solar radiance value is on an 400 00:14:39,269 --> 00:14:37,600 absolute scale 401 00:14:40,949 --> 00:14:39,279 by extending the record we're going to 402 00:14:43,269 --> 00:14:40,959 be able to better tell what solar 403 00:14:44,949 --> 00:14:43,279 features are causing variations in the 404 00:14:46,870 --> 00:14:44,959 sun's output 405 00:14:48,230 --> 00:14:46,880 we want to know again by lengthening 406 00:14:51,030 --> 00:14:48,240 this record 407 00:14:52,389 --> 00:14:51,040 how the sun changes over decades over 408 00:14:55,030 --> 00:14:52,399 centuries 409 00:14:57,750 --> 00:14:55,040 and this extended record will then tell 410 00:14:59,829 --> 00:14:57,760 us with better certainty how the sun is 411 00:15:01,189 --> 00:14:59,839 contributing to climate change on the 412 00:15:04,310 --> 00:15:01,199 earth and how sensitive the earth's 413 00:15:05,910 --> 00:15:04,320 climate system is to solar inputs 414 00:15:07,590 --> 00:15:05,920 thank you and back to you sarah all 415 00:15:09,350 --> 00:15:07,600 right thanks greg 416 00:15:11,189 --> 00:15:09,360 our final speaker on the panel today is 417 00:15:13,509 --> 00:15:11,199 brian cairns he's the aerosol 418 00:15:15,590 --> 00:15:13,519 polarimetry sensor instrument scientist 419 00:15:17,110 --> 00:15:15,600 from nasa's goddard institute for space 420 00:15:19,910 --> 00:15:17,120 studies 421 00:15:22,710 --> 00:15:19,920 uh good afternoon um thank you sarah 422 00:15:25,030 --> 00:15:22,720 for some people it's been a long road 423 00:15:27,189 --> 00:15:25,040 to get this glory mission but for me 424 00:15:30,389 --> 00:15:27,199 this started before dawn in april of 425 00:15:31,829 --> 00:15:30,399 1998 on a mountain above santa barbara 426 00:15:33,829 --> 00:15:31,839 where we made the first measurements 427 00:15:35,990 --> 00:15:33,839 with an airborne prototype of the 428 00:15:37,670 --> 00:15:36,000 aerosol polarimetry sensor 429 00:15:39,430 --> 00:15:37,680 it was those measurements that convinced 430 00:15:40,790 --> 00:15:39,440 us that we could make measurements in 431 00:15:42,150 --> 00:15:40,800 the real world that were just as 432 00:15:43,509 --> 00:15:42,160 accurate as the ones we made in the 433 00:15:45,110 --> 00:15:43,519 laboratory 434 00:15:47,990 --> 00:15:45,120 so i've not actually come very far but 435 00:15:49,189 --> 00:15:48,000 it's taken a while to get here 436 00:15:53,110 --> 00:15:49,199 so 437 00:15:55,030 --> 00:15:53,120 before dawn is that i was setting up a 438 00:15:56,629 --> 00:15:55,040 sun photometer to make measurements of 439 00:15:57,829 --> 00:15:56,639 these little airborne particles called 440 00:15:59,829 --> 00:15:57,839 aerosols 441 00:16:01,749 --> 00:15:59,839 sun photometers look at how much the sun 442 00:16:03,110 --> 00:16:01,759 is dimmed by the little particles and 443 00:16:04,790 --> 00:16:03,120 are a really good way of making that 444 00:16:06,310 --> 00:16:04,800 kind of measurement 445 00:16:09,350 --> 00:16:06,320 the reason that we can't use sun 446 00:16:10,710 --> 00:16:09,360 photometers to do the job that the aps 447 00:16:12,629 --> 00:16:10,720 is going to do is that you'd have to 448 00:16:14,389 --> 00:16:12,639 have half a million of them uniformly 449 00:16:15,829 --> 00:16:14,399 distributed around the world and it's 450 00:16:18,310 --> 00:16:15,839 kind of awkward to stick them in the 451 00:16:20,870 --> 00:16:18,320 middle of the southern oceans 452 00:16:23,189 --> 00:16:20,880 um can i have my first graphic please 453 00:16:25,670 --> 00:16:23,199 so what the aerosol polarimetry sensor 454 00:16:27,910 --> 00:16:25,680 will do in the afternoon constellation 455 00:16:30,470 --> 00:16:27,920 is we'll have six hundred thousand 456 00:16:32,310 --> 00:16:30,480 observations spread around the globe 457 00:16:34,949 --> 00:16:32,320 and at each one of those points we take 458 00:16:36,790 --> 00:16:34,959 ten thousand measurements 459 00:16:38,710 --> 00:16:36,800 and the reason that we take 10 000 460 00:16:40,790 --> 00:16:38,720 measurements is because aerosols and 461 00:16:42,389 --> 00:16:40,800 clouds are kind of a mess if you look at 462 00:16:44,550 --> 00:16:42,399 the the graphic 463 00:16:47,110 --> 00:16:44,560 this is a picture of the pico de arizaba 464 00:16:48,949 --> 00:16:47,120 which is the highest mountain in mexico 465 00:16:51,350 --> 00:16:48,959 and on the left you can see pollution 466 00:16:53,590 --> 00:16:51,360 flowing out from mexico city and on the 467 00:16:55,110 --> 00:16:53,600 right there are cumulus clouds in the 468 00:16:57,990 --> 00:16:55,120 coastal range 469 00:16:59,430 --> 00:16:58,000 and so as greg said the sun is the thing 470 00:17:01,430 --> 00:16:59,440 that's heating the earth it's the 471 00:17:02,550 --> 00:17:01,440 dominant source of energy coming into 472 00:17:04,949 --> 00:17:02,560 the system 473 00:17:06,949 --> 00:17:04,959 and what aps tells you is what what 474 00:17:09,189 --> 00:17:06,959 energy is coming back out 475 00:17:11,669 --> 00:17:09,199 but more than that it tells you what is 476 00:17:13,510 --> 00:17:11,679 coming out and what caused it to come 477 00:17:15,189 --> 00:17:13,520 out because you really want to know 478 00:17:17,110 --> 00:17:15,199 whether you have these little particles 479 00:17:18,789 --> 00:17:17,120 that are going to absorb light 480 00:17:20,309 --> 00:17:18,799 sending it back to space 481 00:17:23,029 --> 00:17:20,319 because they'll send it back to space 482 00:17:24,549 --> 00:17:23,039 but also absorb in the in the atmosphere 483 00:17:26,789 --> 00:17:24,559 or if it's something like a cloud which 484 00:17:28,549 --> 00:17:26,799 doesn't absorb very much so you reflect 485 00:17:31,190 --> 00:17:28,559 it out there's not much absorbed in the 486 00:17:33,590 --> 00:17:31,200 cloud and it gets to the surface and and 487 00:17:35,590 --> 00:17:33,600 heats the surface 488 00:17:36,470 --> 00:17:35,600 and the way in which we diagnose whether 489 00:17:38,470 --> 00:17:36,480 we have 490 00:17:41,190 --> 00:17:38,480 small aerosol particles big aerosol 491 00:17:44,230 --> 00:17:41,200 particles non-spherical particles ice 492 00:17:46,950 --> 00:17:44,240 particles or cloud droplets is primarily 493 00:17:48,789 --> 00:17:46,960 using the polarization um could you show 494 00:17:51,909 --> 00:17:48,799 the next graphic please 495 00:17:53,669 --> 00:17:51,919 this is um sort of the most obvious and 496 00:17:55,590 --> 00:17:53,679 and 497 00:17:58,310 --> 00:17:55,600 visually enticing 498 00:17:59,669 --> 00:17:58,320 example of polarization on the left is a 499 00:18:02,070 --> 00:17:59,679 picture taken 500 00:18:03,430 --> 00:18:02,080 it shows a rainbow and a polarizer was 501 00:18:06,150 --> 00:18:03,440 used so you can actually see that 502 00:18:07,990 --> 00:18:06,160 rainbow on the right there's no rainbow 503 00:18:08,789 --> 00:18:08,000 because there was no polarizer used and 504 00:18:11,190 --> 00:18:08,799 the 505 00:18:12,470 --> 00:18:11,200 reflected light is so bright you simply 506 00:18:14,310 --> 00:18:12,480 can't see the rainbow without a 507 00:18:15,669 --> 00:18:14,320 polarizer 508 00:18:17,830 --> 00:18:15,679 why do we want to measure things like 509 00:18:20,710 --> 00:18:17,840 rainbows it's because the angular 510 00:18:23,029 --> 00:18:20,720 distribution and color of that light 511 00:18:25,190 --> 00:18:23,039 tells you exactly how big those cloud 512 00:18:27,029 --> 00:18:25,200 droplets are and it tells you what the 513 00:18:27,750 --> 00:18:27,039 width of the droplet size distribution 514 00:18:31,190 --> 00:18:27,760 is 515 00:18:33,430 --> 00:18:31,200 use when we're trying to diagnose 516 00:18:35,430 --> 00:18:33,440 whether aerosols have changed 517 00:18:39,350 --> 00:18:35,440 how those clouds are formed 518 00:18:42,630 --> 00:18:40,470 so 519 00:18:44,390 --> 00:18:42,640 we're interested in trying to understand 520 00:18:47,110 --> 00:18:44,400 whether it's natural 521 00:18:49,909 --> 00:18:47,120 aerosols or and or aerosols that we make 522 00:18:50,870 --> 00:18:49,919 that are dominating the uh the climate 523 00:18:52,390 --> 00:18:50,880 signal 524 00:18:54,549 --> 00:18:52,400 and obviously when you take a picture of 525 00:18:56,789 --> 00:18:54,559 los angeles it's really easy to know 526 00:18:58,310 --> 00:18:56,799 where the aerosols came from 527 00:19:00,710 --> 00:18:58,320 we know that most the ones over los 528 00:19:01,990 --> 00:19:00,720 angeles they're they're ones we made 529 00:19:04,150 --> 00:19:02,000 the reason that we have something like 530 00:19:06,470 --> 00:19:04,160 the aerosol polarimetry sensor making 531 00:19:07,990 --> 00:19:06,480 ten thousand measurements of these 532 00:19:10,390 --> 00:19:08,000 six hundred thousand points around the 533 00:19:12,390 --> 00:19:10,400 globe is to diagnose the composition of 534 00:19:14,150 --> 00:19:12,400 the aerosols in those locations so that 535 00:19:16,710 --> 00:19:14,160 we can distinguish between the 536 00:19:18,549 --> 00:19:16,720 contributions from natural 537 00:19:20,390 --> 00:19:18,559 sources of aerosols and anthropogenic 538 00:19:22,549 --> 00:19:20,400 aerosols 539 00:19:23,669 --> 00:19:22,559 and can you show my last graphic 540 00:19:27,270 --> 00:19:23,679 and 541 00:19:30,070 --> 00:19:27,280 is just a 542 00:19:32,630 --> 00:19:30,080 cartoon showing that 543 00:19:35,270 --> 00:19:32,640 every every cloud droplet every ice 544 00:19:36,870 --> 00:19:35,280 particle in a serous cloud forms on an 545 00:19:38,789 --> 00:19:36,880 aerosol particle 546 00:19:40,950 --> 00:19:38,799 that's the energetically 547 00:19:43,350 --> 00:19:40,960 easiest way for them to form 548 00:19:45,350 --> 00:19:43,360 so if you put a lot of little particles 549 00:19:46,710 --> 00:19:45,360 um in the atmosphere and then you lift a 550 00:19:47,990 --> 00:19:46,720 parcel of air 551 00:19:50,310 --> 00:19:48,000 then what's going to happen is you'll 552 00:19:51,669 --> 00:19:50,320 form more little droplets 553 00:19:53,029 --> 00:19:51,679 and what that can do is it can make your 554 00:19:54,549 --> 00:19:53,039 cloud brighter 555 00:19:56,390 --> 00:19:54,559 it can also mean that the cloud will 556 00:19:58,549 --> 00:19:56,400 last longer because it's less likely to 557 00:20:00,789 --> 00:19:58,559 grow large enough to rain out 558 00:20:02,710 --> 00:20:00,799 and so again this is why we need the 559 00:20:04,310 --> 00:20:02,720 aerosol polarimetry sensor to do these 560 00:20:07,270 --> 00:20:04,320 very accurate measurements of the 561 00:20:10,310 --> 00:20:07,280 droplet sizes of droplets in clouds and 562 00:20:12,470 --> 00:20:10,320 also understand how many aerosols were 563 00:20:14,710 --> 00:20:12,480 present um and 564 00:20:15,990 --> 00:20:14,720 when the cloud was formed 565 00:20:17,590 --> 00:20:16,000 um so 566 00:20:19,590 --> 00:20:17,600 to summarize the aerosol polar imagery 567 00:20:21,190 --> 00:20:19,600 sensor were like 568 00:20:22,070 --> 00:20:21,200 sun photometers spread all over the 569 00:20:24,149 --> 00:20:22,080 world 570 00:20:26,789 --> 00:20:24,159 making ten thousand measurements at each 571 00:20:27,750 --> 00:20:26,799 point around around the globe 572 00:20:30,470 --> 00:20:27,760 and 573 00:20:32,470 --> 00:20:30,480 we're really trying to nail down exactly 574 00:20:34,470 --> 00:20:32,480 what the contribution of aerosols and 575 00:20:36,230 --> 00:20:34,480 clouds is to the 576 00:20:38,070 --> 00:20:36,240 amount of radiation that's reflected out 577 00:20:39,270 --> 00:20:38,080 of the atmosphere and how much gets the 578 00:20:40,630 --> 00:20:39,280 surface 579 00:20:42,549 --> 00:20:40,640 back to you 580 00:20:44,549 --> 00:20:42,559 all right thank you brian and thanks to 581 00:20:46,230 --> 00:20:44,559 each of our speakers today on this glory 582 00:20:47,830 --> 00:20:46,240 mission science briefing 583 00:20:49,909 --> 00:20:47,840 at this point i'm going to go ahead and 584 00:20:52,149 --> 00:20:49,919 take some questions we'll start here 585 00:20:53,830 --> 00:20:52,159 with uh news media in the room and then 586 00:20:56,070 --> 00:20:53,840 we'll go to the phones for questions 587 00:20:57,270 --> 00:20:56,080 from kennedy if you could state your 588 00:20:59,430 --> 00:20:57,280 name and affiliation when you get the 589 00:21:01,510 --> 00:20:59,440 microphone janine scully santa maria 590 00:21:03,430 --> 00:21:01,520 times the long poke record 591 00:21:05,270 --> 00:21:03,440 it's kind of been touched on but we're 592 00:21:06,630 --> 00:21:05,280 writing for joe citizen can someone 593 00:21:08,950 --> 00:21:06,640 explain 594 00:21:10,789 --> 00:21:08,960 why joe citizen should care about this 595 00:21:12,310 --> 00:21:10,799 mission and what it's going to really 596 00:21:14,950 --> 00:21:12,320 bring to 597 00:21:19,669 --> 00:21:14,960 a teacher and the local schools or 598 00:21:24,230 --> 00:21:22,390 well ultimately it is about our climate 599 00:21:28,149 --> 00:21:24,240 whether it changes or not 600 00:21:31,190 --> 00:21:28,159 need to know the components of the 601 00:21:33,029 --> 00:21:31,200 energy that go in and go out with an 602 00:21:35,669 --> 00:21:33,039 extremely high accuracy which at this 603 00:21:38,149 --> 00:21:35,679 point we simply don't have that accuracy 604 00:21:40,230 --> 00:21:38,159 except for the incoming solar light we 605 00:21:42,310 --> 00:21:40,240 know that energy accurately and we'll 606 00:21:45,750 --> 00:21:42,320 know that even more accurately as soon 607 00:21:48,070 --> 00:21:45,760 as glory is launched but the ways energy 608 00:21:49,909 --> 00:21:48,080 is reprocessed in the atmosphere are so 609 00:21:52,470 --> 00:21:49,919 complex and there's so many different 610 00:21:54,070 --> 00:21:52,480 mechanisms that affect it 611 00:21:57,110 --> 00:21:54,080 we need to address each of these 612 00:21:59,830 --> 00:21:57,120 mechanisms separately and aps 613 00:22:02,310 --> 00:21:59,840 will do that with respect to aerosols 614 00:22:04,390 --> 00:22:02,320 so ultimately it is about our lifestyle 615 00:22:06,390 --> 00:22:04,400 and the conditions in which we live and 616 00:22:08,390 --> 00:22:06,400 whether climate is changing 617 00:22:10,630 --> 00:22:08,400 and how accurately we can predict 618 00:22:13,350 --> 00:22:10,640 climate changes and to do that we need 619 00:22:16,149 --> 00:22:13,360 to know this energy budget equation with 620 00:22:21,909 --> 00:22:16,159 a very high accuracy and without aps 621 00:22:26,789 --> 00:22:22,950 if 622 00:22:32,870 --> 00:22:30,230 as brian mentioned that aerosols do 623 00:22:34,390 --> 00:22:32,880 impact clouds and one of the examples he 624 00:22:36,950 --> 00:22:34,400 used was that 625 00:22:40,390 --> 00:22:36,960 increased numbers of aerosols will 626 00:22:42,789 --> 00:22:40,400 create clouds with um 627 00:22:45,110 --> 00:22:42,799 larger numbers of droplets that are 628 00:22:47,590 --> 00:22:45,120 smaller and less likely to precipitate 629 00:22:50,230 --> 00:22:47,600 and so as climate changes due to 630 00:22:52,630 --> 00:22:50,240 increased concentrations of aerosols you 631 00:22:54,630 --> 00:22:52,640 could see redistribution of rainfall or 632 00:22:59,190 --> 00:22:54,640 even reductions in rainfall and climate 633 00:23:02,549 --> 00:23:01,029 something that farmers 634 00:23:05,750 --> 00:23:02,559 for example would be very very 635 00:23:08,470 --> 00:23:05,760 interested in in knowing about 636 00:23:11,350 --> 00:23:08,480 i guess the last comment i would have is 637 00:23:15,029 --> 00:23:13,750 right now we don't really know um 638 00:23:17,830 --> 00:23:15,039 what the 639 00:23:20,070 --> 00:23:17,840 effect of aerosols is on climate very 640 00:23:21,990 --> 00:23:20,080 well it could be fifty percent larger or 641 00:23:24,070 --> 00:23:22,000 fifty percent smaller than the current 642 00:23:26,470 --> 00:23:24,080 best guess 643 00:23:29,510 --> 00:23:26,480 and what the aerosols do is they 644 00:23:31,270 --> 00:23:29,520 mask the greenhouse gas warming 645 00:23:34,149 --> 00:23:31,280 so depending on what you assume about 646 00:23:34,950 --> 00:23:34,159 aerosols you can either have 647 00:24:15,110 --> 00:23:34,960 a 648 00:24:17,029 --> 00:24:15,120 know 649 00:24:18,310 --> 00:24:17,039 what that sensitivity is and the 650 00:24:19,590 --> 00:24:18,320 measurements that we're going to make 651 00:24:22,870 --> 00:24:19,600 will help to 652 00:24:24,710 --> 00:24:22,880 constrain and reduce that uncertainty 653 00:24:26,710 --> 00:24:24,720 and janine this also ties back to 654 00:24:29,269 --> 00:24:26,720 something that hell said early on we 655 00:24:30,870 --> 00:24:29,279 touched on see one thing glory does is 656 00:24:33,669 --> 00:24:30,880 it really spans kind of the 657 00:24:35,909 --> 00:24:33,679 anthropogenic or the human-caused 658 00:24:37,750 --> 00:24:35,919 reasons for climate change but it also 659 00:24:39,669 --> 00:24:37,760 addresses some of the natural effects 660 00:24:41,669 --> 00:24:39,679 the things that we have no control over 661 00:24:44,549 --> 00:24:41,679 such as the sun 662 00:24:48,230 --> 00:24:44,559 and as we try to set policy 663 00:24:49,190 --> 00:24:48,240 in the future joe citizen pays joe taxes 664 00:24:51,669 --> 00:24:49,200 and 665 00:24:53,510 --> 00:24:51,679 as we try to decide what policies are 666 00:24:55,590 --> 00:24:53,520 going to be needed to mitigate or 667 00:24:57,190 --> 00:24:55,600 control climate change we need to be 668 00:24:59,190 --> 00:24:57,200 able to distinguish how much of it we 669 00:25:02,149 --> 00:24:59,200 have control over versus how much we 670 00:25:04,230 --> 00:25:03,190 all right i think we have another 671 00:25:05,830 --> 00:25:04,240 question here in the room i'm going to 672 00:25:07,909 --> 00:25:05,840 try my question again norah wallace 673 00:25:10,070 --> 00:25:07,919 santa barbara news press so in terms of 674 00:25:12,549 --> 00:25:10,080 understanding global climate change can 675 00:25:15,909 --> 00:25:12,559 can anyone rank glory's importance in 676 00:25:19,110 --> 00:25:17,510 well maybe it's it's it's this question 677 00:25:20,870 --> 00:25:19,120 is a little unfair 678 00:25:23,830 --> 00:25:20,880 to all of these instruments we might be 679 00:25:25,830 --> 00:25:23,840 a little biased that's right 680 00:25:28,230 --> 00:25:25,840 just a bit 681 00:25:30,710 --> 00:25:28,240 but for example if you look at the 682 00:25:33,029 --> 00:25:30,720 forces of climate physical and chemical 683 00:25:34,310 --> 00:25:33,039 mechanisms that change climates we can 684 00:25:35,750 --> 00:25:34,320 estimate them 685 00:25:37,750 --> 00:25:35,760 and we did 686 00:25:40,149 --> 00:25:37,760 and it turns out that the estimate of 687 00:25:41,830 --> 00:25:40,159 the aerosol forcing of climate 688 00:25:44,070 --> 00:25:41,840 is large it's comparable to the force 689 00:25:46,390 --> 00:25:44,080 and due to the greenhouse gases but if 690 00:25:48,470 --> 00:25:46,400 you look at the uncertainty in this 691 00:25:50,630 --> 00:25:48,480 estimate this uncertainty is as big as 692 00:25:53,350 --> 00:25:50,640 the estimate which tells us that we 693 00:25:55,909 --> 00:25:53,360 don't know much about aerosols at all 694 00:25:58,310 --> 00:25:55,919 and then if we look at the anthropogenic 695 00:26:00,149 --> 00:25:58,320 or man-made forcing of climate 696 00:26:01,750 --> 00:26:00,159 it also has an uncertainty comparable to 697 00:26:03,830 --> 00:26:01,760 the estimate 698 00:26:05,830 --> 00:26:03,840 and almost all of this uncertainty comes 699 00:26:07,750 --> 00:26:05,840 from aerosols from the poor knowledge of 700 00:26:09,510 --> 00:26:07,760 aerosols so to 701 00:26:11,909 --> 00:26:09,520 it's difficult to overestimate the 702 00:26:13,750 --> 00:26:11,919 importance of the glory mission but it's 703 00:26:15,350 --> 00:26:13,760 not to say that we can underestimate the 704 00:26:19,350 --> 00:26:15,360 importance of the other components of 705 00:26:20,230 --> 00:26:19,360 the a train or other satellites 706 00:26:22,789 --> 00:26:20,240 and 707 00:26:25,590 --> 00:26:22,799 just to amplify the 708 00:26:28,149 --> 00:26:25,600 the value of glory goes up substantially 709 00:26:29,510 --> 00:26:28,159 because it's in the a train and as 710 00:26:31,750 --> 00:26:29,520 michael indicated earlier the 711 00:26:34,470 --> 00:26:31,760 combination of calypso 712 00:26:36,710 --> 00:26:34,480 and glory is much more powerful than 713 00:26:37,590 --> 00:26:36,720 either of those two alone and add to 714 00:26:40,149 --> 00:26:37,600 that 715 00:26:42,630 --> 00:26:40,159 cloud sat and and the aqua satellite 716 00:26:45,350 --> 00:26:42,640 with modis on it these are all 717 00:26:47,510 --> 00:26:45,360 really important and valuable um data 718 00:26:49,350 --> 00:26:47,520 sets that when combined give us much 719 00:26:53,590 --> 00:26:49,360 more capability than any one of those 720 00:26:59,269 --> 00:26:55,190 all right i believe we have a question 721 00:27:03,430 --> 00:27:02,310 yeah this is denise ciao from space.com 722 00:27:05,430 --> 00:27:03,440 um 723 00:27:07,590 --> 00:27:05,440 my question is it's a two-part question 724 00:27:09,510 --> 00:27:07,600 actually um how important is it that 725 00:27:11,430 --> 00:27:09,520 glory will be launched at a time when 726 00:27:14,390 --> 00:27:11,440 the sun's activity is ramping up toward 727 00:27:16,470 --> 00:27:14,400 the solar maximum and then second 728 00:27:18,230 --> 00:27:16,480 with the 32-year record that we already 729 00:27:19,350 --> 00:27:18,240 have 730 00:27:21,350 --> 00:27:19,360 what is already known about the 731 00:27:22,789 --> 00:27:21,360 correlation between solar activity and 732 00:27:25,269 --> 00:27:22,799 the concentration of aerosols in the 733 00:27:26,070 --> 00:27:25,279 atmosphere 734 00:27:28,230 --> 00:27:26,080 okay 735 00:27:29,269 --> 00:27:28,240 the first question is how important is 736 00:27:31,909 --> 00:27:29,279 it that we're 737 00:27:35,669 --> 00:27:31,919 we're starting to monitor with glory the 738 00:27:37,269 --> 00:27:35,679 sun as it's ramping up that's not 739 00:27:38,870 --> 00:27:37,279 critically important what is more 740 00:27:41,590 --> 00:27:38,880 critical is that we get very good 741 00:27:43,909 --> 00:27:41,600 overlap with the total irradiance 742 00:27:45,750 --> 00:27:43,919 monitor that's flying on source so 743 00:27:47,750 --> 00:27:45,760 there's a good 32-year record that i've 744 00:27:51,590 --> 00:27:47,760 shown now but it does rely on continuity 745 00:27:52,789 --> 00:27:51,600 and overlap of each of these instruments 746 00:27:55,190 --> 00:27:52,799 the glory 747 00:27:57,350 --> 00:27:55,200 total radiance monitor has a better 748 00:27:59,350 --> 00:27:57,360 absolute calibration on it than anything 749 00:28:01,430 --> 00:27:59,360 that's been launched before 750 00:28:03,750 --> 00:28:01,440 and by getting that instrument 751 00:28:05,909 --> 00:28:03,760 on orbit and able to overlap with the 752 00:28:08,789 --> 00:28:05,919 predecessors will be able to link some 753 00:28:09,990 --> 00:28:08,799 of that historical 32-year record tie it 754 00:28:12,950 --> 00:28:10,000 down better 755 00:28:15,510 --> 00:28:12,960 to with better absolute accuracy via the 756 00:28:16,549 --> 00:28:15,520 glory total irradiance monitor 757 00:28:23,269 --> 00:28:16,559 so 758 00:28:25,110 --> 00:28:23,279 isn't very important but getting that 759 00:28:26,710 --> 00:28:25,120 overlap with the existing record and 760 00:28:30,630 --> 00:28:26,720 particularly with the total irradiance 761 00:28:32,630 --> 00:28:30,640 monitor and source is very important 762 00:28:34,630 --> 00:28:32,640 in terms of 763 00:28:35,750 --> 00:28:34,640 links between 764 00:28:37,029 --> 00:28:35,760 the sun 765 00:28:38,789 --> 00:28:37,039 and 766 00:28:40,549 --> 00:28:38,799 climate 767 00:28:42,230 --> 00:28:40,559 this is this is not directly addressing 768 00:28:43,990 --> 00:28:42,240 the aerosols yet 769 00:28:45,990 --> 00:28:44,000 there are good correlations between 770 00:28:47,510 --> 00:28:46,000 solar activity and that 11-year cycle 771 00:28:49,669 --> 00:28:47,520 we've been able to see about three of 772 00:28:51,510 --> 00:28:49,679 them so far with good spacecraft 773 00:28:54,549 --> 00:28:51,520 measurements there are good links 774 00:28:57,669 --> 00:28:54,559 between temperature and solar activity 775 00:28:59,430 --> 00:28:57,679 the the links to aerosols are a little 776 00:29:01,590 --> 00:28:59,440 more tenuous and something that we will 777 00:29:03,909 --> 00:29:01,600 be improving a bit with glory but 778 00:29:05,430 --> 00:29:03,919 perhaps michael you'd be able to 779 00:29:07,590 --> 00:29:05,440 to say anything that you you'd know 780 00:29:09,830 --> 00:29:07,600 about correlations between solar 781 00:29:13,110 --> 00:29:09,840 activity and aerosols 782 00:29:13,909 --> 00:29:13,120 probably there's no direct correlation 783 00:29:16,310 --> 00:29:13,919 but 784 00:29:19,750 --> 00:29:16,320 there was this global phenomenon called 785 00:29:21,029 --> 00:29:19,760 global dimming which was occurring 50 786 00:29:22,870 --> 00:29:21,039 20 years ago 787 00:29:24,710 --> 00:29:22,880 which means that with time the amount of 788 00:29:27,190 --> 00:29:24,720 solar energy penetrating all the way 789 00:29:29,990 --> 00:29:27,200 down to the surface was decreasing 790 00:29:32,230 --> 00:29:30,000 and one of the hypothesis was that it is 791 00:29:34,310 --> 00:29:32,240 because the amount of aerosols in the 792 00:29:36,470 --> 00:29:34,320 atmosphere was increasing 793 00:29:38,870 --> 00:29:36,480 and so they were reflecting more 794 00:29:40,710 --> 00:29:38,880 sunlight back into space 795 00:29:42,470 --> 00:29:40,720 just because of their numbers 796 00:29:45,029 --> 00:29:42,480 and then this global dimming was 797 00:29:47,269 --> 00:29:45,039 replaced by global brightening which is 798 00:29:48,950 --> 00:29:47,279 happening now so more sunlight 799 00:29:50,470 --> 00:29:48,960 penetrates all the way to the surface 800 00:29:52,470 --> 00:29:50,480 and warms it 801 00:29:54,789 --> 00:29:52,480 we don't know exactly what the physical 802 00:29:56,789 --> 00:29:54,799 mechanisms of this phenomena are 803 00:29:58,789 --> 00:29:56,799 but no doubt aerosols contribute quite a 804 00:30:01,029 --> 00:29:58,799 bit to both phenomena 805 00:30:03,669 --> 00:30:01,039 we need to study this phenomena and also 806 00:30:05,750 --> 00:30:03,679 we need to study the human-made 807 00:30:08,630 --> 00:30:05,760 contribution to this phenomena for 808 00:30:11,510 --> 00:30:08,640 example there have been several 809 00:30:14,470 --> 00:30:11,520 laws adopted in the late 1970s in europe 810 00:30:16,549 --> 00:30:14,480 and the united states clean air acts and 811 00:30:18,710 --> 00:30:16,559 eventually they took effect and we now 812 00:30:20,149 --> 00:30:18,720 know that the amount of aerosols over 813 00:30:21,669 --> 00:30:20,159 europe and the united states has 814 00:30:23,029 --> 00:30:21,679 decreased quite a bit 815 00:30:25,190 --> 00:30:23,039 of course this is not true of other 816 00:30:27,830 --> 00:30:25,200 parts of the globe including china and 817 00:30:30,230 --> 00:30:27,840 india and other developing countries so 818 00:30:32,549 --> 00:30:30,240 we need to know what these countries do 819 00:30:34,630 --> 00:30:32,559 to contribute to the aerosol population 820 00:30:36,789 --> 00:30:34,640 in the atmosphere and how this affects 821 00:30:40,630 --> 00:30:36,799 climate and this is what the glory aps 822 00:30:44,470 --> 00:30:42,149 thank you greg and michael do we have 823 00:30:45,909 --> 00:30:44,480 follow-up questions here in the room 824 00:30:47,510 --> 00:30:45,919 one more i wonder if anybody would be 825 00:30:48,549 --> 00:30:47,520 willing to address what you think of 826 00:30:51,669 --> 00:30:48,559 having the 827 00:30:56,230 --> 00:30:51,679 hitchhiker payload going on your your 828 00:30:56,240 --> 00:31:03,190 good for them 829 00:31:09,990 --> 00:31:06,070 no it's been very carefully um analyzed 830 00:31:12,470 --> 00:31:10,000 and and the the risk to glory from 831 00:31:14,310 --> 00:31:12,480 from their edition is negligible 832 00:31:15,830 --> 00:31:14,320 so we're fine with it 833 00:31:17,590 --> 00:31:15,840 and they may be helping our future 834 00:31:19,669 --> 00:31:17,600 instruments because they're going to be 835 00:31:21,750 --> 00:31:19,679 improving perhaps communications that 836 00:31:23,350 --> 00:31:21,760 we'd be able to get from from future 837 00:31:27,590 --> 00:31:23,360 spacecraft 838 00:31:31,590 --> 00:31:29,590 can you characterize how much more 839 00:31:33,269 --> 00:31:31,600 improved the instrument on glory will be 840 00:31:35,350 --> 00:31:33,279 for measuring uh 841 00:31:37,190 --> 00:31:35,360 solar radiance compared to what you have 842 00:31:39,830 --> 00:31:37,200 been using before on source is there a 843 00:31:42,470 --> 00:31:39,840 way to characterize just how much neater 844 00:31:44,549 --> 00:31:42,480 and cooler this one is 845 00:31:46,310 --> 00:31:44,559 this one that the one flying in source i 846 00:31:48,310 --> 00:31:46,320 should say is about a factor of three 847 00:31:49,509 --> 00:31:48,320 better in accuracy than anything that's 848 00:31:51,029 --> 00:31:49,519 flown before 849 00:31:52,870 --> 00:31:51,039 now you notice i 850 00:31:53,990 --> 00:31:52,880 probably remember the offsets on those 851 00:31:56,230 --> 00:31:54,000 graphs 852 00:31:58,149 --> 00:31:56,240 the source being the the newest 853 00:31:59,830 --> 00:31:58,159 instrument to be producing data for 854 00:32:00,710 --> 00:31:59,840 total solar radiance is a fair amount 855 00:32:03,269 --> 00:32:00,720 lower 856 00:32:04,950 --> 00:32:03,279 than the preceding instruments 857 00:32:06,310 --> 00:32:04,960 um and we'd spent quite a while trying 858 00:32:08,149 --> 00:32:06,320 to understand that and getting the 859 00:32:10,149 --> 00:32:08,159 entire total solar ratings community 860 00:32:12,070 --> 00:32:10,159 together the you know it sounds like a 861 00:32:13,029 --> 00:32:12,080 big community but it's smaller than the 862 00:32:14,870 --> 00:32:13,039 group 863 00:32:17,350 --> 00:32:14,880 worldwide 864 00:32:19,830 --> 00:32:17,360 that we have in this room right now 865 00:32:21,750 --> 00:32:19,840 but what we're learning is that 866 00:32:23,669 --> 00:32:21,760 an improved instrument design that we 867 00:32:25,669 --> 00:32:23,679 have with the total irradiance monitor 868 00:32:27,590 --> 00:32:25,679 that went up on source 869 00:32:29,509 --> 00:32:27,600 allows a lot less scattered light into 870 00:32:31,909 --> 00:32:29,519 the instrument so the preceding 871 00:32:34,310 --> 00:32:31,919 instruments had additional light that 872 00:32:37,029 --> 00:32:34,320 made them read erroneously high we 873 00:32:39,750 --> 00:32:37,039 recently got a paper published to that 874 00:32:41,430 --> 00:32:39,760 effect that explains the scatter and why 875 00:32:43,029 --> 00:32:41,440 those instruments read higher than the 876 00:32:44,789 --> 00:32:43,039 total irradiance monitor does but it 877 00:32:47,269 --> 00:32:44,799 does look like the total radiance 878 00:32:48,870 --> 00:32:47,279 monitor on source is at least a factor 879 00:32:50,230 --> 00:32:48,880 or three better than the preceding 880 00:32:53,110 --> 00:32:50,240 instruments 881 00:32:54,950 --> 00:32:53,120 now with some design changes mostly to 882 00:32:56,630 --> 00:32:54,960 the electronics and the glory total 883 00:32:58,549 --> 00:32:56,640 irradiance monitor 884 00:33:02,149 --> 00:32:58,559 and with the new calibration facility 885 00:33:03,830 --> 00:33:02,159 that we've built under the glory program 886 00:33:06,230 --> 00:33:03,840 partly because 887 00:33:08,070 --> 00:33:06,240 when i first started off on source 888 00:33:09,909 --> 00:33:08,080 every time i would show that plot of all 889 00:33:11,190 --> 00:33:09,919 these offset instruments someone would 890 00:33:13,029 --> 00:33:11,200 say 891 00:33:14,070 --> 00:33:13,039 why didn't you guys calibrate these 892 00:33:16,230 --> 00:33:14,080 things 893 00:33:17,590 --> 00:33:16,240 and it's not that simple the offsets on 894 00:33:19,350 --> 00:33:17,600 there they look large but they're 895 00:33:21,190 --> 00:33:19,360 actually fairly small on the scale 896 00:33:22,950 --> 00:33:21,200 that's shown there 897 00:33:25,110 --> 00:33:22,960 every one of those instruments really is 898 00:33:27,590 --> 00:33:25,120 calibrated as well as people could do in 899 00:33:30,470 --> 00:33:27,600 the labs at the time 900 00:33:33,190 --> 00:33:30,480 but there has been over these 32 years 901 00:33:35,190 --> 00:33:33,200 no facility on the ground that could 902 00:33:37,830 --> 00:33:35,200 calibrate one of these instruments end 903 00:33:40,549 --> 00:33:37,840 to end for measuring irradiance 904 00:33:42,470 --> 00:33:40,559 something at solar power levels 905 00:33:44,870 --> 00:33:42,480 on glory we decided to address that 906 00:33:47,269 --> 00:33:44,880 problem and we created a facility 907 00:33:49,110 --> 00:33:47,279 that would bring any instrument 908 00:33:50,950 --> 00:33:49,120 any total solar radiance instrument in 909 00:33:52,950 --> 00:33:50,960 the world into our facility and be able 910 00:33:54,950 --> 00:33:52,960 to compare it against a nist calibrated 911 00:33:57,269 --> 00:33:54,960 cryogenic radiometer kind of the gold 912 00:33:59,269 --> 00:33:57,279 standard in doing radiometry 913 00:34:02,230 --> 00:33:59,279 so we created a new facility to be able 914 00:34:04,230 --> 00:34:02,240 to end and validate these instruments 915 00:34:05,830 --> 00:34:04,240 and the glory 916 00:34:08,470 --> 00:34:05,840 instrument is the first flight 917 00:34:10,389 --> 00:34:08,480 instrument to be calibrated on that 918 00:34:11,349 --> 00:34:10,399 facility so not only have we improved 919 00:34:17,669 --> 00:34:11,359 the 920 00:34:19,430 --> 00:34:17,679 we've also kind of validated that with 921 00:34:21,430 --> 00:34:19,440 this good nist 922 00:34:23,270 --> 00:34:21,440 certified cryogenic radiometer in 923 00:34:24,550 --> 00:34:23,280 comparisons against that with the new 924 00:34:27,270 --> 00:34:24,560 facility 925 00:34:27,990 --> 00:34:27,280 that gives about a factor of three or 926 00:34:32,069 --> 00:34:28,000 the 927 00:34:33,909 --> 00:34:32,079 electronics and calibrations gives about 928 00:34:36,389 --> 00:34:33,919 a factor of three improvement over what 929 00:34:37,909 --> 00:34:36,399 we've achieved on source 930 00:34:39,829 --> 00:34:37,919 so i am 931 00:34:42,230 --> 00:34:39,839 really looking forward to seeing glory 932 00:34:43,190 --> 00:34:42,240 go up and seeing it match very closely 933 00:34:44,790 --> 00:34:43,200 with 934 00:34:48,869 --> 00:34:44,800 the measurements that we're getting from 935 00:34:50,389 --> 00:34:48,879 the total radiance monitor on source 936 00:34:51,589 --> 00:34:50,399 thank you greg 937 00:34:53,109 --> 00:34:51,599 we're going to go ahead and conclude 938 00:34:55,510 --> 00:34:53,119 this briefing now because we do have 939 00:34:57,109 --> 00:34:55,520 another one coming up shortly and we 940 00:34:58,470 --> 00:34:57,119 need to make sure that we have enough 941 00:35:00,150 --> 00:34:58,480 time for all the questions on that 942 00:35:01,589 --> 00:35:00,160 briefing as well 943 00:35:03,190 --> 00:35:01,599 so at this point i just want to thank 944 00:35:04,790 --> 00:35:03,200 our panelists again one more time for 945 00:35:06,870 --> 00:35:04,800 being with us today and all of our 946 00:35:08,710 --> 00:35:06,880 guests on the phone and here in the room 947 00:35:10,470 --> 00:35:08,720 uh stay tuned for the next briefing